This paper analyses the transformation of poverty and vulnerability in Bangladesh’s haor region through a 26-year longitudinal comparison of participatory poverty assessments conducted in 1999 and 2025 in the villages of Nuralipur (Khaliajuri) and Fadlipur (Gowainghat). Situated within an ecologically fragile wetland system, the study examines how climate exposure intersects with spatial disadvantage, evolving livelihoods, and changing power relations. The findings document significant declines in extreme poverty, improvements in education and infrastructure, and expanded livelihood diversification driven by migration, NGO engagement, and state social protection. However, poverty reduction has unfolded alongside widening inequality. An emergent ultra-wealthy rural elite has consolidated control over land, fisheries, and politically mediated resource flows, reflecting processes of elite capture within local governance structures. Livelihood gains remain uneven and fragile, shaped by differential access to assets, migration networks, and institutional patronage, and highly sensitive to climatic shocks and market volatility. Gender and generational shifts reveal expanding opportunities for women and youth, yet persistent structural constraints across class and religious lines. Conceptualizing vulnerability as a dynamic and relational process mediated by exposure, asset distribution, and institutional power, the study argues that rural transformation in climate-vulnerable regions represents not a linear escape from poverty but a reconfiguration of risk and inequality. Sustainable poverty reduction therefore requires climate-resilient governance that is inclusive, accountable, and attentive to structural disparities.

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